Because there’s plenty of evidence that you can’t win consistently in the NFL these days without a good quarterback, it’s rather surprising that a 33-year-old former first-round pick with a Pro Bowl on his resume has been collecting dust on the shelves of free agency for over a week.
Why no love for Jay Cutler?
The 11-year veteran was released March 9 after an injury-plagued eighth season with the Chicago Bears, but just one year ago, he was coming off the highest-rated campaign of his NFL career. Seemingly in his prime in 2015, Cutler was ranked as a top-10 quarterback in terms of DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) and DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) at Football Outsiders.
He still wasn’t a superstar, but only eight qualified passers had higher yards-per-attempt averages. According to Pro Football Focus, he had the league’s 12th-highest passer rating when throwing deep and was the NFL’s sixth-highest-rated passer under pressure.
That’s a little more impressive when you consider the Bears lacked top-notch pass protection and a consistent running game and the team’s top receiver, Alshon Jeffery, missed half of the season.
Far from 100 percent healthy and without a lot of support, Cutler struggled in five starts in 2016. But that’s a small sample for a player who wasn’t himself on a bad team.
That alone can’t explain why he’s lingered so long on the open market. Let’s explore a few potential factors.
Everyone Knows What His Ceiling Looks Like
Let’s face it: It’s a lot more fun to examine the trade market for 25-year-old New England Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, or even the free-agent market for sub-30-year-old physical specimens like Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III.
That’s because there’s still an element of the unknown with those guys. Teams might be more willing to invest in a flawed but talented young player than in a flawed but talented older player because there’s a perception that the former has more room for improvement.
Cutler could still improve. He’ll be 34 before he plays another NFL game, but Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Steve Young, Rich Gannon, Randall Cunningham, Kurt Warner, John Elway and Warren Moon, among others, enjoyed some of the best years of their careers at or beyond 35. Gannon and Moon didn’t peak until they were in their mid-30s.
There were indications the mistake-prone Cutler was figuring it out before his 2016 season was derailed by injuries. His interception rate had dropped in back-to-back seasons, and he was at least able to start 30 of a possible 32 games during that stretch.
| Most starts in the last decade | |||
| Quarterback | Starts | Wins | Rating |
| Eli Manning | 160 | 88 | 86.2 |
| Philip Rivers | 160 | 83 | 95.1 |
| Drew Brees | 158 | 91 | 99.5 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 143 | 94 | 95.4 |
| Matt Ryan | 142 | 85 | 93.6 |
| Tom Brady | 141 | 113 | 102.5 |
| Joe Flacco | 138 | 83 | 84.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 135 | 90 | 104.5 |
| Jay Cutler | 134 | 66 | 85.6 |
| Carson Palmer | 129 | 64 | 86.9 |
| Pro Football Reference | |||
Still, the guy has started 139 games and thrown 4,491 passes over the last 11 years. You generally know what you’re getting, which isn’t always a bad thing. The problem in this case is Cutler hasn’t been able to give anyone a positive return on their investment.
Teams employing Cutler have made the playoffs just once in 11 years. The only time that happened, Cutler earned his sole career playoff victory when the Bears beat a Seattle Seahawks team with a losing record.
One week later, Cutler played so poorly in the NFC Championship Game against the rival Green Bay Packers that he was booed at home before suffering a game-ending injury in the third quarter of a 21-14 loss. Chicago’s 14 points came without Cutler in the fourth quarter.
It’s not too late for Cutler to change the perception that he’s not a winning quarterback, but he’s lost more games than he’s won, and his playoff resume is not inspiring.
That might help to explain why he’s been greeted mainly by crickets since becoming a free agent.
Everyone Is Waiting for Another Domino to Fall
Of course, there’s also a Texas-sized elephant in this room. It’s widely assumed Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo is available on the trade market and that if a trade doesn’t transpire, he’ll be released.
Romo is three years older than Cutler and probably less durable. He missed the majority of the last two seasons because of issues with his back, collarbone and shoulder, and he lost his starting job to rookie Dak Prescott while recovering from back surgery in 2016. Still, he’s a four-time Pro Bowler with superior career numbers, and he was the league’s highest-rated passer in 2014.
| Jay Cutler vs. Tony Romo: Career comparison | ||
| Category | Cutler | Romo |
| Record | 68-71 | 78-49 |
| Comp.% | 61.9 | 65.3 |
| TD | 208 | 248 |
| INT | 146 | 117 |
| YPA | 7.2 | 7.9 |
| Rating | 85.7 | 97.1 |
| Pro Football Reference | ||
Romo’s 97.1 career passer rating is the fourth-highest qualified mark in NFL history. And although he hasn’t led Dallas to a Super Bowl, he has experienced more team success than Cutler. He’s been to the playoffs in four of his eight full or close-to-full seasons, and he has an 8-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, as well as a solid 93.0 passer rating in six career postseason games.
Look around the league, and you’ll be able to identify about five or six teams that could use a starting-caliber quarterback. The Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns and maybe the Jacksonville Jaguars. But unless the Jags suddenly decide to part with Blake Bortles and pay a veteran quarterback to replace him, the only non-rebuilding teams on that list are the Broncos and Texans.
Both teams have been linked heavily to Romo.
It’s possible a team that isn’t considered a contender could invest in Cutler despite his age and injury history. In fact, NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport reported Monday the Jets “have been in touch.”
Still, it’s easy to figure that if both the Broncos and Texans are pursuing Romo, Cutler might soon become a consolation prize.
Does Cutler Even Want to Play?
But would Cutler want to move to New Jersey to take another beating as part of a team that almost certainly will not be competitive? He’s always been a rather enigmatic character, and Rapoport reported in February there’s “no guarantee” Cutler plays anywhere in 2017.
It’s possible a man who has made more than $100 million in his career would rather retire and spend time with his wife and kids than fight for a chance to expose himself to more injuries in a losing environment.
It’s also possible he isn’t all too excited about football but gets the hankering when summer begins to turn to fall. That’d save him from grueling offseason work, and depending on what happens in training camps, it could even broaden his options.
We just don’t know. Yet it’s possible Cutler isn’t receiving much interest because he isn’t expressing any.
This Could Linger
What’s next?
Again, it might depend on how quickly the Cowboys move with Romo. Initial indications were they’d be releasing him, and then ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reported they’d hold out for a trade. Since he’d likely be designated as a post-June 1 cut, they don’t have much incentive to release him in the next couple of months.
That could mean Cutler’s career will remain in limbo for weeks, if not months, to come.
It’s odd considering we’re talking about a not-too-old former Pro Bowler with 208 career touchdown passes under his belt, but nothing about this league—or this offseason—is conventional.
Source: BleacherReport