With the 2016-17 NBA regular season winding down, and the playoff field basically set, the most intriguing basketball storyline going right now is the MVP race between Russell Westbrook and James Harden. LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard are in the mix as well, but the season-long narrative of Harden vs. Westbrook is about to see its conclusion shortly.
If you’ve been following our many NBA 2K simulations on Uproxx, or our NBA 2K live streams on Dime’s Facebook page, you probably know where I’m going with this.
NBA 2K17 allows users to start a season simulation at any point throughout the year using real-life NBA data. That means Russell Westbrook and James Harden will have the same NBA 2K17 statistics on March 29th, 2017 that they have in the real-life NBA on March 29th, 2017.
For example, if you looked at our 2016-17 NBA season simulation from October, NBA 2K17 had no real-life data with which to base its results. Check that out of you want your mind blown. It went off the rails in a hurry.
Simulating the rest of the regular season using real-life data from this point on, though? That’ll give us some fairly accurate results, and we’re using that feature today to predict every end-of-NBA-season award, including that MVP race we’ve been talking about all year. Let’s get to it.
Sixth Man of the Year – James Johnson
The Miami Heat were a dreadful basketball team for an exceptionally long stretch to begin the 2016-17 season, but their miraculous turnaround into a playoff contender is no fluke. James Johnson deserves a healthy portion of credit for that. It’s not often that you’ll see a player finally develop at 29 years old on his fourth NBA team, but Johnson did that this season. He’s been serviceable at other stops, but Miami changed him for the better.
I can see where NBA 2K is coming from here, despite my slight shock at the selection that is mostly rooted in the idea that Johnson’s value as a sixth man for a fringe playoff team is a tough sell when candidates like Eric Gordon, Lou Williams, and Enes Kanter give their respective teams similar, if not better. production for locked in playoff teams/title contenders.
Rookie of the Year – Dario Saric
There was a period of time after Rookie of the Year frontrunner Joel Embiid went down with a meniscus tear in his left knee that it was concievable he’d still win ROTY despite playing just 31 games this season. It was unclear if anyone else would separate themselves from the pack of effective-but-not-Embiid-great rookies. Dario Saric did just that. He’s been excellent since Embiid got hurt, and he was already very effective before the Embiid injury, so I’m totally with NBA 2K17 here. Saric is the guy.
Coach of the Year – Steve Kerr
Steve Kerr and the Golden State Warriors set the NBA regular season bar impossibly high last season. Then the playoffs happened. 3-1 yadda yadda yadda and here we are. It’s hard to call the Warriors a disappointment, but they certainly haven’t been firing on all cylinders this season. But really, who has?
There’s an excellent case to be made for Brad Stevens, particularly if the Boston Celtics can hold on to that No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Mike D’Antoni is another deserving candidate, but NBA 2K went with the head coach of the NBA’s best team. There is only so much anger I can muster for that.
Defensive Player of the Year – Rudy Gobert
Rudy Gobert is a generational defensive talent. He deserves at least one Defensive Player of the Year win before his career is over, and no one should take issue with 2016-17 being his year. The Utah Jazz are good, their defense is a big part of that, and Gobert is the cornerstone on that side of the ball.
With that being said, other candidates like Kawhi Leonard and Draymond Green are equally deserving, but bring with them a better team record and NBA title contention. Gobert is in the mix, but I don’t know if he’s the real-life favorite.
Most Improved Player – Nikola Jokic
This is a tough one. Nikola Jokic is having an incredible year, and personally, he’s been my favorite young player to watch this season, but this award is always weird. Charting improvement is a lot more difficult than some of these other awards because you have to consider what that player was before this season, and that is at least partially subjective. It would be great to see Jokic get it, but the candidate list for MIP is nearly endless.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is another candidate that is starting to garner some attention, but Giannis was already an incredible player even though he did make a considerable leap this season. I like to view MIP as the young player who showed flashes in prior seasons, and finally figured it out award. Players like Jokic and Washington’s Otto Porter fit that mold better than The Greek Freak.
Most Valuable Player – James Harden
There it is. James Harden. Every time I’ve talked about the Westbrook vs. Harden MVP debate I come back to the same on-the-fence conclusion. My heart says Westbook, but my head says Harden. Russ has been awesome. He’s the most fun player in the league right now, and I’m not sure it’s close. His numbers speak for themselves, but his candidacy suffers slightly from the fact that nobody is expecting the Thunder to make a big splash in the playoffs. What James Harden is doing statistically is equally impressive, and when you couple that with the fact that he’s doing it at a somewhat new position on a team with legitimate NBA title hopes, the argument for Harden is an easy one to understand.
I’m not complaining either way. The fact that this is still a debate with just a couple of weeks left in the NBA regular season is a testament to how close the MVP race has been. I don’t envy any MVP voters this year. They have a tough decision to make.