Which NBA Teams Need the No. 1 Seed Most in Both Conferences?

Some NBA teams have historically cared more than others about playoff seeding, but this year, there’s one club in each conference that should be pushing for the top spot harder than everyone else.

A lot can change between now and the end of the regular season, but the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers must do everything possible to retain the No. 1 seeds they’ve held for the vast majority of 2016-17.

Warriors Need a Break

The San Antonio Spurs have only recently injected drama into the proceedings out West by tying the Warriors for the top spot Monday. The Dubs moved a half-game ahead with Tuesday’s win, but this is now a legitimate race.

The Spurs have gone 16-3 since Feb. 1—not exactly coasting. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 12-7 in that same span and are in the midst of their shakiest stretch since Steve Kerr took over coaching duties in 2014-15.

San Antonio is something of a monument to marginalizing the regular season. Gregg Popovich pioneered planned rest and has generally eschewed seed pursuit as a goal.

But the Spurs saw the dangers of that approach two years ago when a loss in their season finale (even though nobody of consequence rested) resulted in a drop from second to sixth. Losing Game 7 in the first round to a Los Angeles Clippers outfit that earned home-court advantage by vaulting up to the vacated second spot may have served as a lesson.

Still, that’s not the same thing as saying San Antonio needs this top seed.

Its road record is best in the NBA at 27-8, and having the league’s top bench means there’s not much danger of overtaxing starters in tougher early-round series.

Maybe the Spurs would like to duck the Oklahoma City Thunder or Memphis Grizzlies in a potential 2 vs. 7 first-round matchup, but it’s difficult to see either of those low seeds scaring them in a seven-game series.

The Warriors, meanwhile, should be doing whatever they can to snag that No. 1 spot.

The numbers paint a clear picture of how much home-court advantage throughout the playoffs would mean.

Don’t forget a regular-season home record of 105-8 since Kerr took over.

As compelling as the home-road splits are, the Warriors’ biggest reason for pursuing No. 1 is health.

Getting the Denver Nuggets (or whichever untested/flawed/incomplete team might catch them) in the first round would put far less strain on a roster that’ll have to compensate for an absent or diminished Kevin Durant.

Ideally, the Warriors could hold KD out for the entirety of that series, giving him more time to recover from the MCL sprain he suffered Feb. 28. Having seen the deleterious effects of Stephen Curry’s similar injury in last year’s playoffs, you’d better believe the Dubs will want to give Durant as much healing time as possible.

If the Warriors were to fall to second, it would mean a meeting with either the Grizzlies or Thunder. Golden State solved Memphis in the playoffs two years ago and has smashed OKC in all three meetings this year, but both of those clubs would inspire greater urgency than Denver would.

And even if that urgency didn’t rise to the level of prompting an earlier KD return, it could tax Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson more than necessary.

The Warriors are tired—mentally, physically and, probably, emotionally.

This has been a long run of deep playoff trips and offseason Olympic duties, all conducted under the microscope that comes with historical achievements and league darling/villain status. You can see it in their recent rough stretch, a 3-5 manifestation of lethargy and fatigue. Curry’s shot is off, the bench looks ragged and the defensive integrity has crumbled.

Catching the Nuggets in the first round would present a significant break, and the Warriors desperately need one of those.

There’ll have to be a cost-benefit analysis as the Warriors play out the string. They developed bad habits and wore down last year as the chase for 73 wins took on a life of its own. But if Golden State can snag the top spot without further sapping its roster’s strength, it’d be wise to try.

“We still have the No. 1 seed, but I won’t run guys ragged to get it,” Kerr told reporters.

That’s the right idea, but the Warriors need this more than San Antonio.

How About the East?

The Eastern Conference situation doesn’t require as much analysis, but you have to back out and take a macro view to appreciate the simplicity.

Ask yourself this: Can the Boston Celtics or Washington Wizards beat the Cleveland Cavaliers and then either the Spurs or Warriors in consecutive seven-game series?

The answer is almost certainly “no,” which means Cleveland is the team that needs the East’s top seed most because it’s the only one that’ll do anything with it.

Granted, the Cavs have made runs to the Finals look just as easy from the first seed as the second. They were on top last year and lost two games en route to their meeting with the Warriors. The year before, they hit the postseason as the No. 2 seed…and lost two games en route to their meeting with the Warriors.

“If you want to be a championship team, you got to be able to win on the road,” Cavs head coach Tyronn Lue told reporters in February. “So I’ll take health any day. And every round we’ve played in, we’ve won on an opposing team’s floor. So, we know we can win on the road.”

It’s weird, right? Saying the Cavs can get where they want whether they’re the first or second seed, but then saying they need top position more than anyone else?

The key to breaking down that dichotomy is this: It doesn’t matter where Boston or Washington enters the fray—first, second or third—because the Cavs can beat both of them regardless.

Asking if the Celtics or Wizards need the top seed is like agonizing over whether a five- or 10-minute head start matters in a race between you or I and a world-class marathon runner. It doesn’t matter; we can’t compete.

Now, for Cleveland, the benefit of keeping the top position is only having to face one of those two threats before reaching its inevitable third straight Finals. And while the Cavs should be heavy favorites regardless, preserving whatever stamina they can by avoiding one of those two should be a priority.

Are we getting too trite? Should we think harder about anointing Cleveland as the only East team that matters? Isn’t it more vulnerable, especially on defense, than we’re letting on?

Nah.

The Cavs entered the 2014-15 postseason with the NBA’s No. 20 defense, allowing 104.1 points per 100 possessions, and then promptly dialed up the intensity to permit just 100.3 against tougher playoff competition.

Ranked 22nd on D right now, they can do that again. They’re proven switch-flippers.

So, even if Cleveland’s path to the Finals feels foreordained, some of the same logic that dictates the Warriors’ priorities still applies: Make it easy on yourself in the early stages so you have as much left as possible for the later one that matters.

Source: BleacherReport